What if you started investing in the S&P 500 in the 2022 bear market?
You started investing 300,000 won every month in an S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in early 2022, as a bear market began amid surging inflation and rate hikes. See what that would have looked like with real data. This case starts at the beginning of a decline and runs through the later recovery too.
Investment conditions
Asset · S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Method · Recurring monthly investment
Period · 2022-01-01 ~ 2026-07-01
Amount · $222 / month
As of · 2026-07-01
Key metrics
These results do not reflect taxes. Based on historical data.
Risk & recovery
As important as returns. This service does not hide maximum drawdown or loss periods.
Maximum drawdown (MDD)
-15.4%
Largest drop from peak
Longest loss period
9months
Months in loss: 12
Recovery period
1months
Growth over time
Invested principal (dashed) and portfolio value (solid). Values below match the calculation.
Total invested $12,222 → Final value $18,748 (+53.4%), Maximum drawdown (MDD) -15.4%
Why this period and asset
In 2022, the highest inflation in about 40 years and the Federal Reserve's rapid rate hikes drove both stocks and bonds lower together. The S&P 500 peaked in January 2022 and fell substantially into the second half of that year, and this scenario starts investing at the beginning of that decline. It then continues through the gradual recovery over 2023-2024, so it runs through one full cycle from decline to recovery.
Interpreting the result
This scenario shows a path that starts at the beginning of a decline and continues into recovery. Be sure to check the maximum drawdown, underwater period, and recovery time on the results screen. If you kept investing during the decline, purchases continued at lower prices, so your average cost may have fallen below the starting level. You can see how that lower average cost worked on your results as the market recovered. But that was because recovery came; during the decline you had to endure a stretch below your invested amount. Comparing stopping versus continuing during the decline under the same conditions helps clarify the difference.
Caveats & limits
Continuing to invest during a bear market is psychologically hard, and you may have to endure a period with your account below what you put in. There is no guarantee that recovery follows a decline, and the time it takes cannot be known in advance. As a foreign asset, USD/KRW rates affect won-denominated returns, and expense ratios, trading costs, and taxes lower performance. There is no guarantee that past recovery patterns will repeat, and this page does not recommend buying any specific asset.
Data sources & limits
- Price data source: Yahoo Finance / FinanceDataReader
- Collected on: 2026-07-23
- Effective trading date: 2026-07-01
- Price basis: Adjusted close (reflects dividends and stock splits)
- Trading fees and taxes are not reflected — figures are pre-tax.
- Based on historical data; does not guarantee future returns.
Frequently asked questions
Isn't starting at the beginning of a bear market a losing move?
If you meet a decline right after starting, you must endure paper losses for a while. But monthly investing keeps buying at low prices during the decline, lowering your average cost, so the effect can show up in a later recovery. Which is better depends on the market path and cannot be assumed; the key is whether you can endure the underwater period.
What if you had stopped investing during the decline?
Stopping could have meant missing the chance to accumulate at low prices; conversely, if the decline lasted longer, you might have avoided further losses. The result depends on the speed of the later recovery. Try calculating and comparing continued versus stopped under the same conditions.
Is investing during a bear market really advantageous?
It is true that monthly investing lowers your average cost during a decline, but it does not remove losses. The deeper and longer the drop, the longer you may stay below your invested amount. It is important to check the underwater period and recovery time together on the results screen.
Related scenarios
📋 Results are based on historical data; past returns do not guarantee future returns.
📋 This service is provided for educational purposes to help you understand investing, not as investment advice.